Warnings
Shaded where the forecast passes a threshold, counted from the time chosen on the slider: high temperatures at that time, heavy rain over the hours after it, heatwaves and cold spells where that day is part of one. Move the slider and the warnings move with it. Heatwaves and cold spells read the whole run once.
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39.93°N · 32.85°E
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The share of each ensemble's members in the seven year-round Atlantic–European weather regimes of Grams et al. (2017), each day: their 500 hPa height over 80° W–40° E, 30–90° N, 10-day low-pass filtered, projected on the regimes as updated to ERA5 by C. M. Grams (data: Zenodo, CC BY 4.0). A member is in the regime of the highest index above 1, else in none (single days, without the life-cycle criteria). ECMWF grows upward from the dates, GEFS downward. The dot on each day: the regime more than half of both models' members share (two halves where the models differ, a ring where neither has one).