Tropical cyclone · Jamaica and the Caribbean

Melissa: a category 5 landfall in Jamaica

For three days in late October 2025 Hurricane Melissa drifted south of Jamaica at walking pace, strengthening over unusually warm water and raining on the island the whole time. At midday on 28 October it came ashore near New Hope, in the parish of Westmoreland, with winds of about 298 km h⁻¹ and a central pressure of 892 hPa, tying the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest storm ever to make landfall in the Atlantic.

26–29 October 2025 · Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba · ERA5

Map of the Caribbean around Jamaica: ERA5 10 m wind and sea-level pressure on 28 October 2025 at 12 UTC, with the hurricane just south-west of Jamaica.
28 Oct, 12 UTC, five hours before landfall: 10 m wind (colours, arrows) and sea-level pressure (white lines). ERA5.

892hPa

Central pressure at landfall

Equal to the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, the Atlantic record at landfall.N1

298km h⁻¹

Sustained wind

About 185 mph, at landfall near New Hope, Westmoreland, on 28 October.N1

193mm

ERA5 rain at Kingston, 28 Oct

The Lab's grid point nearest the capital, after 106 mm the day before.

What happened

Melissa formed in the central Caribbean and for days moved little, its steering currents weak. Over very warm water it intensified rapidly, reaching category 5 on 27 October while still south of Jamaica.N1N2 The slow approach meant days of rain before the wind arrived.

Landfall came on 28 October near New Hope in south-western Jamaica. Black River and the south-west coast were devastated; the island's power grid largely failed. Melissa then crossed eastern Cuba and its rain caused deadly floods in Haiti.N1

A slow approach

Two days apart, the storm has barely moved: on 26 October it lies south of Jamaica's eastern end, on 28 October just off the south-west coast.

ERA5 10 m wind and sea-level pressure around Jamaica, 26 October 2025 12 UTC
26 Oct26 Oct, 12 UTC · the hurricane creeping south of Jamaica. ERA5.
ERA5 10 m wind and sea-level pressure around Jamaica, 28 October 2025 12 UTC
28 Oct28 Oct, 12 UTC · hours before landfall in Westmoreland. ERA5.

Rain before the wind

At the grid point over Kingston, ERA5 puts 106 mm of rain on 27 October and 193 mm on 28 October; over the western end of the island, where the eye came ashore, the rain arrived later but nearly as heavily. On steep, already soaked ground, such totals bring landslides and flash floods well away from the eye.

ERA5 daily precipitation, mm
DayKingstonWestern Jamaica (18.0° N, 78.0° W)
Oct 25210
Oct 26422
Oct 2710637
Oct 28193153
Oct 293524
ERA5 daily precipitation around Jamaica, 28 October 2025
28 Oct · daily precipitation over Jamaica and the sea around it. ERA5.
Hourly ERA5 time series at Kingston, 28 October 2025
Kingston, 28 Oct (UTC) · wind, pressure and hourly rain as the storm passes to the west. ERA5.

The strongest landfalls

892hPa

Melissa's pressure at landfall equals the Labor Day hurricane that struck the Florida Keys in 1935. ERA5's 28 km grid shows the storm's lowest pressure near 985 hPa: a reanalysis places such a storm well but smooths its narrow core.

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References

News

  1. N1The Weather Channel. Hurricane Melissa recap: category 5 landfall in Jamaica, then Cuba and Hispaniola. 31 October 2025.Melissa's track, intensity and landfall, and its impacts in Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.
  2. N2NASA Disasters Program. Hurricane Melissa 2025. October–November 2025.Satellite and response work on the hurricane.

Studies and guidelines

    Maps and charts: the Climaturk Lab.

    Weather: ERA5 reanalysis, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) / ECMWF.