Erzurum weather: the models compared
Erzurum, tomorrow (Friday): a high of 7–8 °C and a low of −2 to 0 °C across 4 models.
Rain over the next 7 days: ECMWF IFS 0.7 mm, ECMWF AIFS 8.0 mm, NOAA GFS 0.6 mm.
Snow in the days shown: ECMWF IFS 3 cm, ECMWF AIFS 9 cm.
The models are close on the temperature on 3 of the 10 days.
Day by day
| Day | ECMWF IFS | ECMWF AIFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON-EU | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 6° / −4° | 5° / −6° | 4° / −3° | 7° / −3° | Models disagree |
| Tomorrow | 8° / −2° | 7° / −2° | 7° / 0° | 8° / −1° | Some spread |
| Saturday, Nov 14 | 8° / 0° | 7° / 0°Rain 0.2 mm | 9° / 1° | 8° / 0° | Some spread |
| Sunday, Nov 15 | 9° / 0°Rain 0.5 mm | 6° / 1°Rain 2.1 mm | 11° / 2° | 9° / 3°Rain 1.8 mm | Models disagree |
| Monday, Nov 16 | 6° / 0° | 5° / −1° | 8° / 1°Rain 0.1 mm | 4° / 1° | Models disagree |
| Tuesday, Nov 17 | 8° / −2° | 6° / −3° | 8° / 2°Rain 0.3 mm | – | Models disagree |
| Wednesday, Nov 18 | 10° / −1° | 4° / −2°Rain 1.3 mmSnow 0.6 cm | 8° / 2°Rain 0.2 mm | – | Models disagree |
| Thursday, Nov 19 | 9° / 2°Rain 0.2 mm | 5° / 3°Rain 4.4 mmSnow 1.3 cm | 9° / 1° | – | Models disagree |
| Friday, Nov 20 | 7° / 3°Rain 6.1 mm | 5° / 2°Rain 3.5 mmSnow 1.7 cm | 8° / 2° | – | Some spread |
| Saturday, Nov 21 | 5° / 1°Rain 16 mmSnow 2.9 cm | 3° / −2°Rain 8.4 mmSnow 5.1 cm | 10° / 4°Rain 0.1 mm | – | Models disagree |
Runs used: ECMWF IFS, Nov 11 12 UTC run · ECMWF AIFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run · NOAA GFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run · DWD ICON-EU, Nov 11 18 UTC run. Updated Nov 12, 03:21 AM. Snow as 10 cm for every 10 mm of water (a rule of thumb).
Why several models?
Each weather centre runs its own model of the atmosphere, and no single one is always right. When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they disagree, the weather is harder to call, and it is worth watching the newer runs. The Lab's Forecast mode shows each model's maps, and Compare models sets them side by side for any place.
Nearby
Data: ECMWF (CC BY 4.0), NOAA (public domain), DWD (CC BY 4.0). Places: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).