Kocaeli weather: the models compared
Forecast for Izmit, the provincial centre.
Kocaeli, tomorrow (Friday): a high of 21–24 °C and a low of 11–16 °C across 4 models.
Rain over the next 7 days: ECMWF IFS 12 mm, ECMWF AIFS 32 mm, NOAA GFS 4.9 mm.
The models are close on the temperature on 3 of the 10 days.
Day by day
| Day | ECMWF IFS | ECMWF AIFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON-EU | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 24° / 10° | 21° / 12°Rain 1 mm | 21° / 13°Rain 0.4 mm | 24° / 14°Rain 0.1 mm | Models disagree |
| Tomorrow | 23° / 11° | 21° / 16° | 23° / 15° | 24° / 14° | Models disagree |
| Saturday, Nov 14 | 23° / 13°Rain 6.5 mm | 20° / 12°Rain 12 mm | 23° / 11°Rain 1.4 mm | 24° / 14°Rain 2.9 mm | Models disagree |
| Sunday, Nov 15 | 13° / 11°Rain 3.2 mm | 12° / 9°Rain 3.7 mm | 11° / 9°Rain 3.3 mm | 13° / 11°Rain 11 mm | Some spread |
| Monday, Nov 16 | 15° / 8° | 13° / 8° | 14° / 9°Rain 0.1 mm | 14° / 10° | Some spread |
| Tuesday, Nov 17 | 18° / 7° | 18° / 8°Rain 0.9 mm | 16° / 10° | – | Models disagree |
| Wednesday, Nov 18 | 19° / 9°Rain 0.5 mm | 19° / 12°Rain 3.9 mm | 20° / 11° | – | Some spread |
| Thursday, Nov 19 | 18° / 12°Rain 1.7 mm | 16° / 12°Rain 11 mm | 20° / 14°Rain 0.1 mm | – | Models disagree |
| Friday, Nov 20 | 21° / 12°Rain 8.4 mm | 14° / 11°Rain 16 mm | 17° / 15°Rain 6.1 mm | – | Models disagree |
| Saturday, Nov 21 | 19° / 10°Rain 0.1 mm | 14° / 8°Rain 0.5 mm | 15° / 14°Rain 10 mm | – | Models disagree |
Runs used: ECMWF IFS, Nov 11 12 UTC run · ECMWF AIFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run · NOAA GFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run · DWD ICON-EU, Nov 11 18 UTC run. Updated Nov 12, 03:21 AM.
Why several models?
Each weather centre runs its own model of the atmosphere, and no single one is always right. When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they disagree, the weather is harder to call, and it is worth watching the newer runs. The Lab's Forecast mode shows each model's maps, and Compare models sets them side by side for any place.
Nearby
Data: ECMWF (CC BY 4.0), NOAA (public domain), DWD (CC BY 4.0). Places: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).