Sur weather: the models compared
Sur, tomorrow (Friday): a high of 28–29 °C and a low of 24 °C across 2 models.
No model expects rain worth measuring in the next 7 days.
The models are close on the temperature on 5 of the 6 days.
Day by day
| Day | ECMWF IFS | ECMWF AIFS | NOAA GFS | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 34° / 25°Rain 0.5 mm | – | 31° / 24° | Models disagree |
| Tomorrow | 29° / 24°Rain 0.1 mm | – | 28° / 24°Rain 0.4 mm | Models agree |
| Saturday, Nov 14 | 28° / 23° | – | 28° / 23° | Models agree |
| Sunday, Nov 15 | 29° / 22° | – | 28° / 23° | Some spread |
| Monday, Nov 16 | 29° / 22° | – | 28° / 21° | Models agree |
| Tuesday, Nov 17 | 29° / 22°Rain 0.1 mm | – | 27° / 22° | Some spread |
| Wednesday, Nov 18 | – | – | 27° / 22° | |
| Thursday, Nov 19 | – | – | 27° / 22° | |
| Friday, Nov 20 | – | – | 28° / 21° | |
| Saturday, Nov 21 | – | – | 28° / 22° |
Runs used: ECMWF IFS, Nov 11 12 UTC run · ECMWF AIFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run · NOAA GFS, Nov 11 18 UTC run. Updated Nov 12, 04:21 AM.
Why several models?
Each weather centre runs its own model of the atmosphere, and no single one is always right. When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they disagree, the weather is harder to call, and it is worth watching the newer runs. The Lab's Forecast mode shows each model's maps, and Compare models sets them side by side for any place.
Nearby
Data: ECMWF (CC BY 4.0), NOAA (public domain), DWD (CC BY 4.0). Places: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).