Van weather: the models compared
Van, tomorrow (Saturday): a high of 5–11 °C and a low of −2 to 2 °C across 4 models.
Rain over the next 7 days: ECMWF IFS 4.8 mm, ECMWF AIFS 21 mm, NOAA GFS 8.8 mm.
Snow in the days shown: ECMWF IFS 9 cm, ECMWF AIFS 31 cm, NOAA GFS 24 cm.
The models are close on the temperature on 4 of the 10 days.
Day by day
| Day | ECMWF IFS | ECMWF AIFS | NOAA GFS | DWD ICON-EU | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 5° / −1° | 7° / 0° | 3° / −5° | 9° / 0° | Models disagree |
| Tomorrow | 7° / 1° | 8° / 2°Rain 0.1 mm | 5° / −2° | 11° / 1° | Models disagree |
| Sunday, Nov 15 | 8° / 2°Rain 1 mm | 9° / 3°Rain 1.1 mm | 8° / 0°Rain 0.3 mm | 11° / 2° | Models disagree |
| Monday, Nov 16 | 7° / 2°Rain 1.7 mm | 8° / 3°Rain 2.1 mm | 8° / 1°Rain 1.1 mm | 10° / 3°Rain 0.8 mm | Models disagree |
| Tuesday, Nov 17 | 7° / 1°Rain 0.5 mm | 7° / 2°Rain 0.8 mm | 7° / 2°Rain 1.3 mm | 9° / 4° | Some spread |
| Wednesday, Nov 18 | 7° / 0° | 8° / 2°Rain 0.5 mm | 7° / 0° | – | Some spread |
| Thursday, Nov 19 | 6° / 1° | 8° / 3°Rain 1.6 mm | 7° / 0° | – | Models disagree |
| Friday, Nov 20 | 6° / 0°Rain 1.6 mmSnow 1 cm | 5° / −1°Rain 15 mmSnow 7.5 cm | 6° / 2°Rain 6.1 mm | – | Some spread |
| Saturday, Nov 21 | 3° / 0°Rain 11 mmSnow 6.6 cm | 5° / −3°Rain 1.1 mmSnow 0.6 cm | 3° / 0°Rain 19 mmSnow 12 cm | – | Models disagree |
| Sunday, Nov 22 | 3° / 1°Rain 4.4 mmSnow 1.2 cm | 2° / 1°Rain 31 mmSnow 23 cm | 2° / −2°Rain 12 mmSnow 12 cm | – | Some spread |
Runs used: ECMWF IFS, Nov 12 12 UTC run · ECMWF AIFS, Nov 12 18 UTC run · NOAA GFS, Nov 12 18 UTC run · DWD ICON-EU, Nov 12 18 UTC run. Updated Nov 13, 04:09 AM. Snow as 10 cm for every 10 mm of water (a rule of thumb).
Why several models?
Each weather centre runs its own model of the atmosphere, and no single one is always right. When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they disagree, the weather is harder to call, and it is worth watching the newer runs. The Lab's Forecast mode shows each model's maps, and Compare models sets them side by side for any place.
Nearby
Data: ECMWF (CC BY 4.0), NOAA (public domain), DWD (CC BY 4.0). Places: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0).